摩根大通集团副总裁对中国经济趋势的预测 - Translated by Marianne Wang

Joan Zheng
Vice President and Deputy Head of Economic Research JPMorgan
摩根大通集团副总裁兼经济研究部副主管

China: Key trends and issues
中国：主要趋势和问题

For the next three years, real GDP growth is expected to average 7% per year, assuming the global economy does not collapse.
未来三年内，只要全球经济不崩溃，中国的平均实际国内生产总值年增长幅度预计为7%。

· China will continue to experience steady GDP growth between seven to eight per cent up to 2005, boosted by strong FDI (foreign direct investment) inflow, a growing middle class stratum and expansion of the private sector.
2005年以前，由于国外直接投资大量涌入，中产阶级的增长以及私营经济成分的扩大，中国国内生产总值增长将稳定在7%到8%之间。

· China has long been the second most popular destination for FDI inflows, thanks to its stable economic, political and social environment, market liberalization and potential, supportive policies, and cheap labor. FDI inflows over the past decades have essentially turned China into a global manufacturing base.
一直以来，中国吸引的国外直接投资量位于世界第二，这是由于中国稳定的经济、政治和社会环境，市场自由化，已经提供并且将会提供的支持性政策，以及低廉的劳动力决定的。在过去的十几年中，正是由于吸引了国外直接投资，中国才发展为全球制造业基地。

· State investment growth is anticipated to moderate but non-government investment will remain strong.
据预计，国家投资涨幅趋平缓，但是非政府投资将保持迅猛势头。

· Not surprisingly, China’s market share in global exports has been picking up steadily. This trend is likely to continue in the medium term.
正如人们所料，中国在全球出口方面的市场份额已经稳步增加。这一趋势在中期很可能继续。

· The new economy also breeds a stratum of middle class who has the spending power and desire.
新经济也造就了一批中产阶级，他们有消费能力，也有消费欲望。

· If China handles the challenges of overhauling the tax and banking system successfully, this will also post opportunities for sustaining growth.
如果中国能妥善处理好税收和银行系统的整顿工作，就有更大可能维持增长。

Local private sector to grow rapidly
地方私营经济成分将迅猛成长

· The local private sector has been gaining significance. Local media have reported that domestic private enterprises now account for one-third of China’s GDP and employ about 20 – 30 million workers. In the first quarter of 2002, they created nearly a third of all new jobs.
社会经济中的地方私营成分正变得日益重要。据地方媒体报道，目前国内私营企业的产值占到中国国内生产总值的三分之一，雇佣的工人达到两、三千万人。在2002年第一季度，它们创造的新就业机会几乎达到所有新就业机会的三分之一。

· Going forward, the private sector will continue to benefit from the economic development and entrepreneurial opportunities available in China. In addition, private ownership brings the right incentives structure for individuals who have accumulated enough capital to venture on their own.
随着私营经济成份的继续发展，它会继续从经济发展中受益，把握住中国现在能提供给企业的更多机会。不仅如此，私人所有制为已经积累了一定资本、希望自己开拓事业的个人提供了合理的激励机制。

· However, the Chinese government needs to resolve the challenges of corporate reform – on corporate governance and disclosure as well as elevating professionalism, ethics and quality of management – and to overhaul the tax system in order to promote the success of its private sector.
但是，中国政府需要处理好企业改革所带来的挑战——企业管理和公开，以及提升专业精神、职业道德和管理质量——并整顿税收体制，从而促进私营经济成分的成功。

Economic reforms: progress so far and challenges ahead
经济改革：目前的进步和未来的挑战

· On the reforms front, China has put in place the basic structure for a market economy. Now it has to make its institutional and legal framework consistent with such an economy.
在改革方面，中国已经实施了市场经济的基本框架。现在，它必须建立一个与市场经济相协调的制度和法律框架。

· China has largely completed Stage I of its economic reform by putting in place the basic structure of a market key economy. Since the late 1990s, China has been carrying out Stage II of its economic reforms, i.e. the revision of the country’s institutional framework and legal system to be consistent with a market economy.
中国已经确立了市场关键经济的基本框架，在总体上完成了第一阶段的经济改革。从二十世纪九十年代末开始直到现在，中国一直在进行其第二阶段经济改革，即调整本国的制度框架和法律体系，以使其与市场经济相协调。

· Pension funding will be key to the success of Stage II reforms. Official statistics show that pension payments account for over 30% of SOE payrolls. The old pay-as-you-go system for the period 2000-2050 totals 71% of 2000 GDP.
养老金对于第二阶段改革的成败至关重要。官方统计数据表明，国有企业支付的薪酬中，30%多是各种养老金。在2000年到2050年间，根据传统的离职付款体系所支付的养老金将达到2000年国内生产总值的71%。

· Over the past few years, SOC reforms have slowed down because the Chinese government has had difficulty taking over the social welfare burden. It appears that the government also plans to introduce a payroll-based social welfare tax to replace the current social contribution system.
最近几年来，国有企业改革有所放缓，因为中国政府已经难以承担社会福利的负担。中国政府似乎也计划推行一种根据在职人员工资收入的社会福利税收，取代目前的社会集资体制。

Banking reforms will focus on profitability and asset quality. For the top four state banks, competition will come mainly from the new local banks, not from foreign ones.
银行业改革将集中在盈利能力和资产质量方面。对于四大国有银行而言，其竞争将主要来自新生地方银行，而非外国银行。

Growth of RMB bond market and expansion on H-shares market
人民币债券市场的增长和H股市场的拓展

· Hong Kong will remain one of the most favorable fund raising markets for China enterprises. But to get foreign institutional investors interested in China’s domestic stock market, the Chinese government has to improve progress on the institutional and market infrastructures.
香港将继续作为中国企业最为喜爱的集资市场之一。但是要想将国外的机构投资者吸引到中国的国内股市中来，中国政府必须改善其体制基础和市场基础。

· The dull outlook for both the domestic A-share market and bank loan growth for the time being also suggests that domestic bonds (convertible bonds in particular) may gain popularity. This will put pressure on the government to lay down institutional and market infrastructure for the local bond market, including liberalizing interest rates. 国内A股市场和目前银行贷款发展的黯淡前景也预示着国内债券（尤其是可兑换债券）可能会大受欢迎。这将会对政府造成压力，为地方债券市场确立体制和市场基础，比如对利率放宽限制。

The taxation system to be overhauled gradually
逐步整顿的税收制度

· The Chinese government has outlined key reform measures for its taxation system. While the schedule is still to be fixed, the general direction is clear: the aim will be to simplify and unify the system. The existing corporate income tax rate will be reduced from the current standard rate of 33 per cent to 24 – 27 per cent. Subsidies and taxation favours that SOEs currently enjoy will be cut back, and various preferential treatment granted to some sectors by the regional governments will be abolished.
中国政府已经制定了税收体制的纲领性改革措施。虽然日程还没有确定，但是总体方向是明确的：其目的就是体系的简化和统一化。企业所得税率将从目前的标准税率33%降为24% – 27%。目前国有企业享有的补贴和税收优惠将会得到削减，地方政府对某些方面给予的各种优惠待遇将会被取消。

· Moreover, the value-added tax (VAT) will move from being product-based, as it is now, to consumption based. The VAT taxation base will be broadened from manufacturing to agriculture and services too. This will effectively lower the tax burden of corporate China.
不仅如此，增值税将会从目前的以生产为依据转变为以消费为依据。增值税计税基准将会从制造业扩大到农业和服务业。这将有效缓解中国企业的税务负担。

· In addition, various fees imposed by the government will continue to be converted into taxes; e.g. auto registration fees and fuel tax. And more importantly, these measures will help enhance the central government’s share in the country’s tax revenue.
同时，政府征收的各种费用都将逐步被转变为税收；比如车辆注册费和燃油税。更为重要的是，这些措施将使中央政府从国家的税收收入中获得更多份额。

Fiscal and China-Taiwan risks will all be contained.
财政风险和中-台风险将继续得到抑制。

· JPMorgan believes that the risks of fiscal crisis is limited for the coming decade at least
摩根大通相信，至少在未来十年中，发生财政危机的风险非常有限。

· No crisis in sight for cross-Taiwan Strait relations
目前台湾海峡两岸关系不会在近期发生危机。